SudanS Civilian-Led Peace Strategy: Charting a New Path Forward

On December 16, a diverse alliance of Sudanese political parties, armed factions, civil society groups, and key political figures gathered in Nairobi to approve a comprehensive nine-point plan aimed at resolving Sudan’s ongoing conflict. This roadmap prioritizes a civilian-led transition to democratic governance as the foundation for lasting peace.

Empowering Civilian Leadership Amidst Military Dominance

this initiative positions civilians as an self-reliant “third force,” distinct from the two main military powers-the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)-that have dominated the country’s turmoil. By advocating for civilian autonomy, it challenges entrenched military control over Sudan’s political future.

The coalition behind this plan stresses reclaiming civilian authority after prolonged marginalization by both armed groups and international mediators. Yet some critics highlight that while it champions civilian leadership,it falls short of offering concrete reforms for restructuring military institutions.

Past Context: From Regional Calls to Civilian Roadmaps

This Nairobi agreement builds on earlier efforts such as the September declaration by the Quad-comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United states-which called for an immediate three-month ceasefire followed by permanent peace negotiations. Both documents emphasize excluding individuals linked to former President Omar al-Bashir’s regime from future governance roles and advocate placing security forces under civilian oversight.

diverse Coalition Members with Varied Backgrounds

• Political parties including prominent entities like the National Umma Party and Sudanese Congress Party;
• Civil society organizations such as Darfur Lawyers Association;
• The coordination of Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees;
• The Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdelwahid al-Nur;
• Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok-who led Sudan’s transitional government until his removal during October 2021’s SAF-RSF coup collaboration.

Navigating Depiction Challenges Within civic groups

Despite its broad ambitions,some analysts argue this coalition does not fully represent all segments of Sudan’s multifaceted population. Researcher Hamid Khalafallah critiques it as another elite-driven alliance disconnected from grassroots communities most affected by violence.

“This is largely a reassembly of previous groups that have struggled to genuinely represent everyday Sudanese,” Khalafallah remarked.“It remains dominated by elites practicing familiar political patterns.”

Although neighborhood resistance committees-key actors in protests that ousted al-Bashir in 2019-were mentioned during discussions about this initiative, none formally endorsed or signed it. Draft versions circulated among some grassroots activists but advanced without widespread consultation or collective decision-making processes. This raises concerns about continued top-down approaches rather than genuine community empowerment.

The Role of Influential Figures in Shaping Civilian Politics

The participation of Abdelwahid al-Nur was welcomed by observers due to his long-standing opposition to elite-dominated settlements; though critics question whether his involvement serves more tactical purposes-to counterbalance rival military-aligned factions-rather of fundamentally transforming inclusive civilian politics across all sectors.

Civilian Alliances Amid Complex Military Alignments

• Tasis: Established early 2025 before RSF formed its parallel government later that year;
• The Democratic Bloc: Mainly composed of parties aligned with SAF interests;
• sumoud: Led by Hamdok alongside various civil society organizations but accused by SAF supporters of favoring RSF agendas.

A European Viewpoint on Unifying Civilian Efforts

An anonymous senior European Union diplomat expressed reservations regarding Nairobi’s roadmap representing multiple competing platforms rather than one cohesive civilian front. The EU advocates consolidating initiatives under African Union leadership into a unified framework broadly accepted across all layers of Sudanese society.

“Our objective is creating an inclusive third pole separate from both RSF and SAF,”

“one embraced widely among ordinary citizens.”

This stance reflects growing frustration over fragmented international support for civilians while emphasizing that abandoning these efforts risks cementing ongoing military dominance over governance structures indefinitely.

Tackling On-the-Ground Military Realities

The EU official candidly dismissed portrayals framing either warring faction as legitimate governing bodies:

“The RSF’s control over Darfur cannot be accurately described as effective governance; SAF performs marginally better-but not significantly so.”

This assessment references recent clashes around vital oil infrastructure like Heglig refinery-a strategic asset contested between SAF and RSF forces-with South Sudan deploying troops following withdrawal agreements aimed at stabilizing operations amid persistent hostilities elsewhere in western regions.
Such resource conflicts highlight how economic stakes often overshadow humanitarian priorities throughout this protracted war landscape.

Tensions Between International Strategies and Local Realities on Peacebuilding

Cameron Hudson-a US-Africa policy analyst-noted parallels between Nairobi’s declaration content and prior quad statements designed primarily for external audiences rather than fostering authentic domestic consensus-building:

“The document appears crafted backward-from what outside actors desire-to secure their endorsement instead of organically uniting internal stakeholders.”