2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook: Understanding Early buying Trends and Consumer Behavior

As the countdown to Christmas Eve narrows to just eight weeks, retailers are recalibrating their approaches to connect with shoppers who are beginning their holiday purchases earlier than in past years. This shift highlights a more cautious consumer attitude amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Shifting Timelines: The Emergence of Early Holiday Sales

The traditional surge in holiday shopping, typically centered around Thanksgiving week, is now being preceded by major sales events such as Amazon’s October Prime Day and early Black Friday promotions from various competitors. These pre-season deals are capturing an increasing portion of consumers’ holiday spending well before the official shopping period kicks off.

This evolving retail environment reveals a stark contrast in spending behavior: while middle- and upper-income groups continue to demonstrate stable purchasing power, lower-income households face tighter constraints due to inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions affecting tariffs, and concerns over potential government shutdowns.

Retailers Embracing Earlier Customer Engagement

Kohl’s is among the retailers accelerating its marketing campaigns this year to leverage these early buying habits. Launching promotions sooner than last year-prioritizing timing ahead of election-related delays-the company aims to draw customers into stores earlier in the season. Kohl’s Chief Marketing Officer Christie Raymond stresses that grasping early shopper tendencies is essential for optimizing sales throughout the holidays.

“We understand that many consumers start their gift shopping well before traditional timelines,” Raymond stated at a recent industry event. “Our strategy focuses on not only attracting attention early but also encouraging multiple visits during the season.”

The Trend Toward Frequent Small Purchases

A recent study conducted by Kohl’s alongside an self-reliant research firm found that between November and January last year, shoppers averaged more than 15 store visits but tended to buy fewer items per trip. This behavior indicates a deliberate search for bargains rather than bulk purchasing all at once.

“Consumers are investing time and effort into finding products priced within their comfort zones,” explained Raymond.

Strategic Spending Shapes Promotional Tactics

Steve Lawrence, CEO of Academy Sports + Outdoors-a retailer catering mainly to middle-income buyers-agrees that customers have become increasingly savvy about aligning purchases with key discount periods throughout the calendar year.

“When we replicate last year’s promotional offers today, we observe higher engagement levels,” Lawrence noted. “This shows shoppers have become adept at identifying optimal times financially for making purchases.”

Tailoring Promotions for Greater Effectiveness

Acknowledging heightened deal awareness among consumers, Academy Sports plans more concentrated promotional windows this season rather of prolonged discount periods seen previously:

• Shrinking sale durations from 10 days down to focused four-day events during Thanksgiving weekend;
• Narrowing discounts from entire brand lines toward select high-demand product categories;

This refined approach aims both at maintaining shopper interest over time and safeguarding profit margins amid intense pricing competition.

The Increasing Influence of Private Label Brands on Purchase Decisions

Kohl’s has noticed growing consumer preference for private label merchandise-exclusive products designed specifically for one retailer-which frequently enough provide better value through competitive pricing without compromising quality or style. Although Kohl’s does not publicly share exact private label sales data currently, executives anticipate expansion opportunities this holiday season as budget-conscious buyers seek alternatives beyond premium national brands.

“Private labels form our strongest value proposition,” says Steve Lawrence regarding Academy Sports’ own brand portfolio representing approximately 23% of total revenue. “Our goal remains delivering prices equal or better than competitors every day.”

Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Headwinds

The retail industry describes today’s consumer as “choiceful”-deliberate yet resilient despite inflationary challenges impacting discretionary spending across categories like apparel and electronics alike. Executives remain hopeful about steady foot traffic during critical shopping windows based on recent seasonal trends such as Mother’s Day and back-to-school periods where demand remained robust despite economic concerns.

“when retailers offer clear value-whether through price or innovation-customers respond by purchasing,” says Dick’s Sporting Goods Executive Chairman Ed Stack.“Striking this balance will be vital throughout this holiday season.”

No Significant Inventory shortages Anticipated Despite Tariff Concerns

Contrary to worries about supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs or political instability leading up to peak selling months, these retailers report inventory levels consistent with previous seasons heading into the holidays.

Stack comments:

“While certain hot-ticket items might potentially be limited each year,” says Stack,“overall stock availability should remain stable compared with prior seasons.”